Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday becoming the first named storm of the year, but a system off the Bahamas with a small chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm is beginning to hit Florida’s coast with some dangerous effects.
The area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough of low pressure is located about 300 miles east of the Bahamas.
“While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on Friday,” according to the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to form into a tropical depression or storm in the next two to seven days.
Jun 19| Windy conditions with onshore moving showers today. A few lightning storms will be possible in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s/low 90s. Large breaking waves and High risk of rip currents at area beaches. Entering the waters is strongly discouraged. pic.twitter.com/z8JExeU7c9
See AlsoNavigating Jupiter Inlets and Waterways: A Comprehensive Boater's Guide — Jupiter Pointe Club & MarinaJupiter Inlet On The Fly In Jupiter— NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) June 19, 2024
The effects of the system, though, are front and center of the National Weather Service in Melbourne, which has issued a high surf advisory and warns of strong rip currents along Florida’s east coast.
Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet will be along the surf zone with numerous life-threatening rip currents including all of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin counties on coastal Central Florida. The high surf advisory stretches until 11 p.m. Thursday.
The NWS also warned for beach erosion especially during high tide around 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Volusia County is still recovering from major erosion created during hurricanes Ian and Nicole in 2022.
The heavy wave action also prompted a small craft advisory from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet in effect until Friday morning with winds gusting up to 35 mph and seas at 6 to 9 feet.
“Models continue to disagree on the exact location and timing of this feature moving onshore,” reads the NWS forecast. “However, they generally agree that it will be somewhere over north Florida/southern Georgia. Fortunately, models continue to support little in the way of development, keeping the feature as an open wave.”
Breezy conditions are still expected, and while some areas may see more rainfall, the overall totals for the region are forecast to remain under 1 inch of rain.
The NHC, though, has its time busy with what became Tropical Storm Alberto in the western Gulf of Mexico.
As of 5 p.m., the system was located about 170 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph moving west-southwest at 9 mph.
“A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning,” NHC forecasters said.
Its tropical-storm-force winds extend out 415 miles to the north of the center and earlier Wednesday a Texas weather station in Matagorda Bay recorded sustained winds of 38 mph with a gust up to 47 mph. The NHC warned that some tornado activity is possible across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Texas coast from San Luis Pass south to the mouth of the Rio Grande River and into Mexico south to Tecolutla.
Rainfall from the system is projected to be from 5 to 10 inches with some areas getting up to 15 inches that could produce flash and urban flooding along with more river flooding across the region as well as potentially producing mudslides in some areas of high terrain across northeast Mexico.
6/19 4 AM CDT: Moderate coastal flooding from Potential Tropical Cyclone #One is likely along much of the Texas coast today and continuing through midweek. Please check https://t.co/0BMJEzOlHs for updates. pic.twitter.com/VrmJk1a0Ca
— NHC Storm Surge (@NHC_Surge) June 19, 2024
Storm surge is projected to be between 2-4 feet from Sargent, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas as well as in Galveston Bay, and from 1-3 feet from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent and from Sabine Pass north to theVermilion-Cameron Parish line in Louisiana.
The NHC is also keeping track of another broad area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days.
